SHORT TERM ANALYSIS (07.12.2009/18:00 h/) SOFIX....447.65...
The Sofix index was in a new strongly upward movement (in wave С or a deeper upward wave 3?) from the 348.75/343.84 important bottoms (the series of bottoms from 28,23 and 15.07 and from 17.06.09) of its whole middle term upward movement from the main 257.65 bottom up after it managed to break above the important previous high from this year at 397.02 (a high from 07.05.09 of the previous strong upward wave А or wave 1?), after it hit a high at 514.67 (a high from 17.09.09).
From the 514.67 top Sofix was in a downward correction which was possibly a correction of this entire last rally from the important 348.75/343.84 lows (even only a correction in wave 4 of the five-wave impulsive rally from the main 257.65 low?). The fall of Sofix was in three waves, as for now it hit a bottom at 428.66 points (a bottom from 05.11.09) -> just near the important technical zone of support 429.25/425.10 (the important previous low at 425.10 from 18.08.09; 50% correction of the 343.84-514.63 rally at 429.25 points).
From the 428.66 low there was a good jump of the index, but that jump was limited to 471.83 (a high from 17.11.09) -> near the 50% correction of the 514.67-428.66 decrease and just bellow the 50-day falling М.А., which is today near 462.48 points. From this high there was a new fall to 441.94 (a low from 27.11) and since then Sofix has been consolidating between the 100-dai and the 21-weak М.А.at the 446.76/447.00 levels and the 455.14/53 levels (21-day М.А. and tops from 03 and 02.12.09).
Only a more lasting fall of Sofix (on daily basis) below the 446.76/447.00 levels could lead to a pressure to the key near technical support at the 431.00/425.10 area (the important bottoms at 428.66 from 05.11 and at 425.10 from 18.08.09; the main rising line of support on daily basis near 431/430 points), before an attempt for a new rise!
In upward direction a lasting rise is needed (on daily basis) above the near 455.14/53 zone of resistance, so that to cancel the new attempt for pressure and for an upward movement back to/above 462.50 (50-day falling М.А.) and to the 471.83 top from 17.11.09. Only a soon rise above that top and then above the last important resistance at 481.81/488.16 (61.8% of the fall 514.67-482.66 to 481.81 and the important corrective high from 15.10.09 to 488.16) will give a CLEAR signal for renewal of its upward movement back to/above the 514.67 high!
Only a lasting fall bellow the 446.76/447.00 levels and then bellow the important technical support at 431.00/425.10 could deepen the whole fall of the index even to the key for now technical support at 409.08/397.02 (61.8% from the 343.84-514.67 rally at 409.08 points; main previous high of wave А or 1 at 397.62 from 05.07.09), before a renewal of its upward movement (if the whole fall of Sofix from the 514.63 high is only in a falling wave 4 of a five-wave middle term rise from the main 257.65 bottom)!
LONG TERM ANALYSIS (07.12.2009/18:00 h/) SOFIX....447.65...
In downward direction, ONLY a fall of Sofix back bellow the key for now technical supports at 431.00/425.10 and at 409.08/397.02 will question its further rise and will lead to a pressure to 387.95/377.56 (200-day important М.А.to 378.95 points and 50-weak М.А. to 377.56) and to 355.85 (61.8% correction of the whole upward movement from the main 257.65 bottom to the 514.67 top) and even back to 348.25/343.84 (series of key previous corrective lows from June-July 2009)!
ONLY a fall of Sofix bellow these key levels of support will give a signal for an ALREADY formed major (ONLY corrective?) middle term high of its whole upward movement from the 257.65 bottom (in this case a rise only in three big corrective waves А-В-С, and not in a series of waves 1-2-3 of a five-wave deep impulse upward movement in 1-2-3-4-5 waves?).
Yavor Rimski, Technical analyzer
Translated by Nadya Simova
Finance.news.bg